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This column by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons appeared in The Times on Wednesday 20th November, 2024.
The Chancellor began her Budget speech by putting it in a historic context, citing 1945, 1964 and 1997, three years in which Labour regained power in the post-war period. The only other year in which Labour also achieved that was 1974, and while the Chancellor did not cite this year it may be more appropriate than the others. The 1970s, like now, were a difficult backdrop for the economy, in an increasingly turbulent world.
This coming Wednesday, Rachel Reeves will deliver her first Budget as Chancellor.
This will be a Tax, Borrow and Spend Budget. I expect two major components: one being a change in the definition of debt, from Public Sector Net Debt (PSND) to Public Sector Net Worth (PWNW) that will permit higher borrowing to fund public investment; and second, increased taxes to fund higher public spending, focused on the NHS.
This column by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons appeared in The Times on Tuesday 1st October, 2024.
At the end of October the Chancellor will deliver her first Budget. Already the markets, as well as the general public, are expecting a tough Budget. This is a reflection of the messaging from the Government in recent weeks, the fiscal stance that has been inherited and the existing high level of UK debt.
This column by our chief economic strategist Gerard Lyons appeared in The Times on Tuesday 6th August, 2024.
We are entering a transitional phase in economic policy across many countries. Especially in the UK, where low inflation points to an easier monetary policy and the change in government points to a shift in fiscal policy.
Last Thursday we hosted a webinar that focused on the policy outlook in the UK and on the implications for people’s finances. You can watch the recording here. Our head of advice, Tom Kimche, looked into the latter, while I focused on the overall outlook and implications. There were three parts to my talk: the latest economic data; the King’s Speech and what it might mean for economic policy; and fiscal policy.
Financial markets are still digesting the new policy measures of the Labour Government. Next week on the 18th of July – the day after the State Opening of Parliament, which includes the King’s Speech that outlines the government’s plan for this session of parliament – we will host a webinar focusing on the economic and financial implications of government policy.
What lies ahead after the election? On 20th June we hosted a webinar to address this issue. Here is a summary of my opening comments on the economic and financial outlook.
Team Contributors
Gerard Lyons
Charlotte Ransom
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“I have a £1m house and £500k pension. How can I shield my children from inheritance tax?”
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“How can we limit the tax we pay when taking my partner’s £700k pension?”
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“My wife and I have £200k in our pensions. Are we on track for a good retirement?”
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I’m 68 and retiring soon. How can I limit taxes when I take out my pension?
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“How do I get the highest return taking the lowest risk on my £540,000 pension?”
Thomas Salter
Iain Barnes
Simon McConnell
In The Press
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